Researchers have warned that there are social psychological signs in the USA today that are similar to those in the 1850s, the years before the American Civil War. Although another civil war remains unlikely, the current socio-political terrain could lead to years of issues, social unrest, and civil strife that falls just short of such a conflict.

The storming of Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021, approximately two months after President Donald Trump suffered his re-election defeat, marked a significant moment in the nation’s mood. At the time, over 2,000 Trump supporters rampaged across the Capitol, many committed acts of vandalism and attempted to harm or harass lawmakers. Some called for the assassination of Trump’s Vice President, Mike Pence, while others accused public administrators of being traitors.

There were deaths too. As a result of and immediately following the events, one police officer and four rioters died. In subsequent months, four officers who responded to the attacks took their own lives.

Despite the scale of the violence, many prominent conservative commentators downplayed the situation. They characterized the riots as “largely peaceful”, describing the day as similar to “a normal tourist visit.” According to others, the rioters were peaceful patriots who were attacked by law enforcement officers. As a result, individuals like Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene suggested the time for a “national divorce” between red and blue states could be near.

Equally, the use of seemingly hypothetical phrases like “if-necessary” in relation to the prospect of civil war, has become more common across social media platforms, especially between members of Congress and local politicians.

Such words evoke the idea of a possible secession and raise the specter of civil war. But how likely is this?

"Striking similarities" – the 1850s to now

A team of US academics have assessed the social psychological landscape present in the country today and compared it with that of the 1850s, and they have come to a worrying conclusion: although still unlikely, another American Civil War is increasingly plausible.

As they write in their study: “Here, our purpose is to compare the zeitgeist of the divisive decade before the Civil War on the one hand with today’s hyper-partisan era on the other, demonstrating the two periods do indeed have extensive, striking similarities.”

“Nonetheless,” they add, “there also is evidence mitigating against the prospect of outright civil war, secession, and/or violent coup d’état. The 1850s, in other words, may not necessarily be prophecy, but we argue a comparison provides ample evidence that a protracted and bitter period of civil dysfunction likely will be multigenerational, even if it is short of a 'hot' civil war.”

The team reached this point via an inverted form of social capital theory. This is a social psychological concept that is often used to study patterns that can lead to positive social outcomes, including increasing goodwill, resources, and collective success at any level (including whole regions).

However, in this instance the team adopted a negative version of this approach that focused on negative social capital, which studies the opposite social outcomes.

“In this study, we used a social psychological conceptual framework – social capital theory – to examine the likelihood of full-scale civil war by comparing the pre-Civil War period with the present. The parallels are striking,” the researchers explain. 

A sample of the parallels between the present-day United States and those in the pre-Civil War period include a cleavage in specific social values and norms among Americans, the intensity of which is very similar today as it was in the past.

The historical underpinnings of the Civil War revolved around, though were not limited to, issues around the opposition to or support for slavery, the power of the federal prerogative, the levels of tariffs on manufactured goods, and aspects of the overall benefits of certain landowners. Today, the value split includes issues over states' rights, the relationship between church and state, abortion v. pro-life policies, minority rights, gun ownership, immigration, taxation, welfare support, and the environment.

Another parallel was a pervasive sense of political mistrust. Before the Civil War, this mistrust was most pronounced within the old South as the conflict’s major issues affected them more directly. The situation is not dissimilar today, especially with the Republican denial of the 2020 election’s legitimacy. There is also the mistrust of the so called “liberal agenda”, which is seen as going too far, while the Christian right believe their way of life/existence is under attack from godless values.

Other parallels include a stronger identification with region or identity groups, rather than with a community or nation; a reliance on different forms and channels of communication and distrust towards “facts” from non-group members; an absence of organizations or networks that bring different ideological groups together; and a perceived lack of reciprocity from the opposition.

What could the future hold?

Taken together, these parallels paint a gloomy picture of the future.

“History as a discipline, and the social sciences in general, provide examples, general prospects, and probabilities, but they do not predict, per se,” the team explain. “Factors that limit the accuracy of predictions include the importance of changes in trends over time and random events that change the course of history.”

“Yet there is widespread agreement that, properly framed, probabilistic analysis serves a useful function when careful research is undertaken and reliability is not overstated.”

Nevertheless, as the researchers state, things do not look good.

“We argue the likelihood of protracted social and political conflicts lasting decades (if not generations) are essentially inevitable and will engulf public administration as well. Only the exact course of this bitter division remains to be seen.”

The study is published in the journal Administration & Society. 

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Correction (18/4/24): The police officer who died following injuries sustained on January 6, 2021 did not pass away until the following day, and the cause of death was given as "natural causes". The wording of the third paragraph has been updated to clarify this.